ETF Trading Research 9/18/2017

Posted September 18, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

You’ll notice I raised the profit goals for some of the ETFs. I probably will for LABD too, and UWT/GUSH. Metals and miners complete analysis is below. Liking oil still with GUSH and don’t mind picking up the rest of the shares of JNUG and NUGT lower here soon. Don’t normally let some of these ETFs go this far, but have given you the reasons why for metals/miners. Either way, we were only about $4 from the 1300 mark I gave out to be all in metals and miners last week, hitting 1304 in gold. Tomorrow we will keep a closer eye on UVXY. I liked the V shape close.

Gold 1400+ (90% odds) – Don’t want to miss the next missile bump.

Oil 53 (will go over but we’ll be more cautious) – into next year higher

Nat Gas 3.40 (we hit the 3.10 Monday and now have higher support and a 3.00-3.40 range we will buy the dips of)

/ES 2400 (led by a tech crunch- Yesterday I said I am short term cautious still but SQQQ finished positive and we have to like that since I think it will lead markets lower post Fed and maybe sooner with NK reaction to Trump)

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Important data is Building Permits, Housing Starts and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock tomorrow.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Waking up this morning and seeing futures up so much, the markets couldn’t get anything going to keep the momentum going. Instead of selling, we stuck with SQQQ and LABD with SQQQ coming out on top for the day and I think we are still close to blastoff with it.

At least with LABD I did say be careful under 5.08 today as it did fall to 4.93, but it did not break to a lower low. It was rather surprising it did not but we’ll take it. Over 5.31 is the target and I want to get more profit out of this one than any of the others as quickly as possible, otherwise it will break lower.

Foreign Markets

I would like to see all 3 of these; YANG, RUSS and BZQ move up together very soon as the charts tell us they are ready. I do like how RUSS is breaking up a little and how BZQ rebounded. Disappointed in YANG today though and we’ll still get long and ride it if they can all get going.

Interest Rates

We are patient for a trigger and it was TMV and we are long.

Energy

We didn’t get much a chance to buy UGAZ on a dip today as it shot up quickly and I have reports from many of you that you did well. We are now green on the weekly and have to be a little careful right now as it was such a big move, but overall no matter what the pullback is, 3.40 is our next target. That’s a lot of profit sitting out there to take, so we’ll keep the strategy of buying the dips at the right time after this current leg up is sold, and adding sitting back and waiting for the move higher.

Oil started the day lower and made us feel like everything we were in was tanking at the beginning of the day, but I had it on my trade of the week list and it rebounded and GUSH is now up 1.90%. We will hold for oil to 53 if we can and might take the profit at 5% or might not. I know I need to check my greed sometimes, but I also am changing a bit and keeping a bit wider stops with the conviction of bigger moves higher as some of you longer term subscribers are seeing. In other words, I am not panicking out as the trend overall is in our favor, with or without a green weekly.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

We saw the continuation lower in metals and miners with gold hitting a low of 1304.30 and close to that 1300 original level I gave as a target when I was negative last week (before last NK missile). We are now long half miners and fully metals and on our last buys in UGLD and USLV are actually higher at the close. My theory is/was that miners might be a little more swing lower happy than the actual metal and we did swing a bit lower after my call, but now have bounced in metals. Miners bounced off the bottom but overnight, anything can happen to continue the fall if that’s what they want to do. Gold bugs pretty much expect the worst, but always get there revenge, and we will hold all the way up to 26 now in JNUG and add shares to JNUG and NUGT higher or lower. We more than likely will be all in by Friday, if not tomorrow. But if we got all in tomorrow, it may not be till next week we really start to take off, so expect a bumpy ride at first as the market deciphers Trump, NK, and the Fed.

Monday’s prices after hours;

Friday’s Prices at the close;

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

UGAZ, JDST, DSLV, DUST, SVXY, SOXL, YINN, RUSS, DGLD (New Green Weekly for TMV and FAS)

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

DGAZ, UVXY, JNUG, USLV, NUGT, SOXS, RUSL, YANG

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt