ETF Trading Research 9/19/2017

Posted September 19, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Today was pretty much a nothing day. Look at the Hot and Cold Corner below. Nothing.

But we did get in the last 1/2 shares of miners pre-market and UVXY which is poised for a bit of a run assuming the Fed doesn’t surprise with something. Either way, I lean short the markets still and see trouble with North Korea after Trumps UN speech. But part of me really just says go fishing till the end of the month and come back to some good profits. As a trader though, I can’t do it. But that’s how I feel.

It’s going to be a little crazy at first. Lot’s of unknown’s this time around. I don’t expect the Fed to do much because Yellen wants to keep her job, so we will see if there are any surprises. I doubt it. And I think we are positioned well either way with our trades. I really want to say at the close tomorrow; “I fell great about everything!” I won’t make excuses for our positions and still hold out for our moves higher in gold, nat gas, oil and lower in markets as I have been consistent with this for some time now. But for you that are only in metals and miners, I do think you should go fishing. Tomorrow may be a wacky kind of day but I won’t be bluffed out of positions by immediate market maker tricks.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Tomorrow we have EXisting home sales and Crude Oil Inventories after the market opens, so won’t make any new calls pre-market to exit current positions or add new positions. Expect the pre-market report to come out around 9AM.

Tomorrow though is all about the Fed at 2pm. They are NOT expected to increase rates. But they are expected to reduce balance sheet some. Any disappointment there would be negative for market. Watch FAS for exit. Also watch UVXY.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

I like how LABD is waking up a little now. Could be a runner soon. It has messed with our minds (ok mine) for way too long. But I have not given up on it with this bottom feeding we have been doing.

SQQQ in a range and any market weakness and we should be good.

UVXY after hours looks great. Almost got to 23.20. Futures all lower. Dow hit another record today and we may be getting our trades to move now post Fed.

With all the good housing data today, and revision higher of last data, the markets couldn’t get going. There is selling going on behind the scenes I think. We’ll know soon.

Foreign Markets

These keep teasing us a little, but we are long all 3 now. Let’s see if we can get that run we have been patiently waiting for. I still say the risk vs. reward is with us here.

Interest Rates

I did something I don’t normally do in getting us out of TMV and switching immediately to TMF without a clear signal. So we’ll have to be more careful with it. I did like getting the profit out of TMV though. These move slow enough not to damage us. I will monitor it but if we get a move lower in the stock market, it can boost TMF. Look at the chart and it looks decent too.

Energy

Nat Gas still probably has some downward movement left in it and we will pick up the 1/2 shares more of UGAZ lower. Goal is to have now a 13.50 average. We’ll ride it up I think and go for the 10% on the last 1/2 and then ride the rest higher with a trailing stop.

If oil is going to be my trade of the week with UGAZ, it has to pick up now with 3 days left in the week. I like how it rebounded off that move below 15 and I also like the fact it didn’t break yesterday’s low. The API came out and showed a build of +1.4M and UWT shot up 30 cents and settled now at 15.31. Good to see. We have data tomorrow.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

We got a decent response for metals and miners today, and you can see buy our purchase of the last 1/2 shares yesterday for metals and today for miners we are higher. I know it was a little tough seeing the first half fall yesterday, but you also know I didn’t waver and I knew I would have to face the consequences if wrong. I am still bullish as can be and will continue to be so until we hit 1400 gold. But I am doing something different versus the Trading Rules, both on the buying the dip with 1/2 shares at a time and then when it comes time to sell, holding out for 26 in JNUG again. I have done the calculations. 1/2 shares that we bought first will be a 22.76% return. The second half will be at 32.92% return. Assuming of course I am right about the 26 target. More than likely, I am a little conservative on this run, but I have learned not to get too cocky. This very well could be our trade of the year for a single trade. Gold moving over 1400 should get us there. Let’s see now if the dollar can move lower down to 88 and USD/JPY down to under 107. Silver of course I’d like to see over 19 and into the low 20’s.

Tuesday’s prices after hours

Monday’s Prices

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

2nd time since tracking, no ETFs qualify.

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

2nd time since tracking, no ETFs qualify.

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt