ETF Trading Research 9/22/2016

After the Housing data today, we had a turnaround in the market. Perhaps the euphoria over Fed speak is 24 hours later contemplated as an understanding there is weakness with the economy which the Fed sees in the data, but the market trades on what the Fed does with interest rate decisions instead of the data. Today the data caught up to the market but only to the tune of about 45 points thus far. Gold ironically took the negative data and moved a little south with the market and the only real tradeable mover today was JDST which we tracked and DGAZ and maybe DWTI since UWTI never hit our targets earlier in the day.

On a side note, I had a client who was stuck in UVXY and I know others who have asked about it. UVXY is for SCALPing only. We may call a trade, but it is the riskiest trade out there. Here is what he wrote me today; “I want to thank you again for your direction on UVXY.  Our timing was great.  It is currently down over $9.00 per share from where I sold it.”

Economic Data for Tomorrow

Since it was a Holiday in Japan Thursday, the Asian markets may tick up a bit with the continued move up in the U.S., but if it does I think it will be short lived. German manufacturing PMI can move Europe higher or lower setting up the U.S. direction I think tomorrow. U.S. data has nothing big coming except Manufacturing PMI at 9:45AM EDT. Then we have 3 FOMC members speaking at 12:00 and finally U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count.

Stock Market

The bulls continued higher overnight and into the AM but the Housing data put an end to the run. Not all of the long the market ETFs have triggered for anyone to take on the full on bull stance, and since I still think we are toppy, I am hesitant jumping on the bull train. Also, it seems we are due for a break lower after the Fed, but no, not a trend change yet. Those take a little more time to develop, especially with the up and down moves we have had.

Foreign Markets

RUSL and YINN moved higher with EDC but also stalled with the U.S. data. No calls for a trend here.

Interest Rates

TLT was up again today the exact same amount it was up yesterday, 1.08. It still could push up to the 140 level and is sitting at 136.95 at today’s close.

Energy

Oil was a mixed bag today. UWTI gapped up in the AM but then fell from the highs, never to top that. This was a little sign of weakness after a few days up and DWTI looked like an opportunity for a move, which did get a couple points out of it when I mentioned it at 77, but it needs some good data for it tomorrow with the rig counts to rebound higher. A play after the report comes out may be in order, but always the risk with OPEC announcements if you hold overnight.

DGAZ I mentioned as a potential scalp opportunity and even with a small trailing stop I know some may have played it as a scalp as UGAZ struggled with the current overhead resistance of a breakout. No call at present.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

I find it very interesting today that Gold was up nicely, but fell from it’s highs, stayed up a decent amount yet the mining stocks, even with the markets higher and dollar lower (but also bouncing a little off those lows), and market makers decided to shake some longs out with JDST up over 6% at one point in time. If we do get a market turnaround, and some gold negativity and a push higher in the dollar, JDST and DUST would fare well tomorrow. No call at present as we could get a market turnaround higher in JNUG and NUGT too. No trend except for silver higher, but it did find issues with that $20 level, closing 10 cents below it.

Other ETFs

GOOG did hit a weekly green today on a breakout of 780 and a fresh 52 week high as well as all-time high. Volume was lower than average but definitely one to watch.

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