ETF Trading Research 9/26/2016

 

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Regarding who will be the next President, it will all depend on Clinton’s health between now and November. She basically had a lock on it until the time where she either stumbled or claimed pneumonia or what have you. Trump has improved his odds with his toning down of the rhetoric, but I’m afraid just a few comments by Clinton tonight will set him off.

Wall St. may want Clinton more than Trump. The economy will have issues with making our products more expensive. That’s not a free market but we can implement free trade. It’s just that these guys don’t know what that even means.

I don’t pick sides. It matters not who gets elected as far as us jumping on trends. Congress has already approved the budget for the next 8 years two years ago and it includes 7 more years of adding to the National Debt. Both candidates will increase the National Debt and budget deficit each year, but for different goals.

Trades Today

There are some scalps you could have taken after the Housing data came out, but I warned the data was negative despite “beating” the estimates. Markets woke up to that and continued their way further south and we finished near the lows. There were some afternoon opportunities but small potatoes as to what is to come soon I believe. I also sold my small amount of shares in DWTI before the market closed as we never know what will come from the OPEC get together over the next 48 hours. Bottom line, the market is on the verge of a bigger fall. While it is poised for this, let’s see how the public views the debate tonight.

Economic Data for Tomorrow

Consumer Confidence at 10AM EDT is the market mover tomorrow. Fed member Fisher speaks but not much coming out of the Fed.

Stock Market

If the market opens weak tomorrow I will think we may get in some of the short the market ETFs a little early before the weekly trend hits. I’ll give that sign when I first see some of the weekly long the market ETFs turn red with my data analysis. A few of those turning red will give us permission to go short. We wait patiently for the most profit to be made when we first hit weekly greens and hope to carry those till we hit monthly greens.

To play devil’s advocate and speculate a higher market. I find it hard to do right now. I’ll make the adjustment and more than likely go long SVXY if that’s the case. Watch AAPL still for some clues.

Foreign Markets

Europe is a mess, whether it is their banking system led by Deutsche Bank or the Italian banks or whether it is their refugee crisis and terrorism. It just seems things are deteriorating and there is not much that can turn it around. Imagine if China all of a sudden let it be known they have more issues? Throw in Japan, Russia and Latin America and it will take U.S. down with them.

Interest Rates

TLT continued higher, but if TBT goes green tomorrow, play it long. If it opens green I would jump on it at the open. Just see a reversal possibility.

Energy DWTI we got a little out of it today, but oil is a risky play without knowing what OPEC will do. We will jump on the trend long or short within 48 hours.

DGAZ couldn’t get going today and I would only be scalping whatever is green on these for now. I’ll make that call tomorrow if it comes.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

We had a mixed bag of up and down with mining stocks today as gold stayed green most of the day but fell slowly as each hour passed. JDST gave us a little fun but I didn’t go after JNUG and NUGT early although the dollar was down and gold was up. Mostly this was because of how I perceived the market and it turned out to be good to stay out as JNUG and NUGT reversed and went negative for the day. We’ll see if JDST and DUST continue higher tomorrow and gold falls with a higher dollar potential. That’s the perfect scenario.

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