ETF Trading Research 11/26/2017

Posted November 26, 2017

More in a few minutes.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Without UGAZ, it was a decent day. One mistake on Wed of not selling as it had no signal and we were down a bit on it, came back to haunt me/us. Now we have to ride the storm out, but from this I have come up with a new strategy to eliminate even these types of moves where market makers pushed nat gas down 7 cents before we had a chance to even trade. I think the new way of handling this is going to work out well for us. It took enough of watching these scenarios play out that had me finally figure out some way to figure out a better way to trade things.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Monday we have New Home Sales as the only important data.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

UVXY never got to our trigger today. It will soon and I think a 10% plus day is coming. Meanwhile, TQQQ up 1% and SVXY up a little is all. We’ll look forward to when SVXY goes red on the weekly and please, even if conservative and you never trade UVXY, save some cash for that day. Interesting to note that Manufactruing and Services PMI came in worse than expected.

Foreign Markets

No calls here today. Everything in a very tight range.

Interest Rates

TMV up slightly today. Waiting on TMF to go red as of now.

Energy

Nat gas killed us today. I saw a bounce to where we are a little over -6% down this morning and could have just pulled the plug then. Also could have kept the stop. I decided to ride it out instead. And they brought it down much more than I anticipated. Monday morning should be it now and we’ll look to maybe get long UNG and ride it up like we rode it up last time we were down on UGAZ. There is a new strategy though that we can implement but want to back test it some. The strategy, that has taken me a couple years of some dumb moves that I keep trying to prevent, is to buy when we are at extremes, both sides of the ETF. We ride the trend higher in one, and sell and haven’t lost anything so far, then ride the other side higher. The timing is key and we should really attempt this with fewer shares. I have seen this potentially work a hundred times it seems and I am on the wrong side when I am trying to catch a bottom that keeps falling lower. To counter this seems so simple to buy both sides, profit from one and sell and then look to profit from the beaten down one, like UGAZ of late. UGAZ 2 days in the cold corner so Monday should be good for it.

Took a stab at DWT but it couldn’t get going quite yet. Didn’t want to hold over the weekend as you never know what can occur in the Middle East. The massacre at the Mosque in Syria didn’t help today. DWT 2 days in the cold corner, so Monday should be good for it, barring Middle East action.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Metals and miners gapped up on Friday and went to new highs and the rug was pulled once again and they headed to new lows. We managed to get in on JDST at a decent price as I utilized a new system and while we could have got out with some decent profit, decided to hold on for more profit into next week. We’ll see how this system works but I have not and may not label it. USD/JPY though is still a good indicator for us. We need it to move over 111.60 and head to 111.90 and higher. 1250 gold and 115+ are still potential targets for being all in metals and miners.

Friday Night Price

Wednesday Afternoon Price

Tuesday Afternoon Price

Monday Night Price

Sunday Night Price

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

DGAZ, UWT

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UGAZ, DWT

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt