ETF Trading Research 5/03/2018
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
Kind of an odd day today. Data came in somewhat negative overall and market did want to go lower anyway as it started to on Monday. We let it bottom out and got long some shares and profited nicely. But we also hit a wall with /ES (see chart under Stock section below) and couldn’t muscle through it. Like to see one more move lower if we can get it, but there is no fear in this market and as such, we’re hanging in there with bounces. Fear with higher volume would help shake this market out and maybe we get it Friday or Monday. I am still bullish but just letting this fall work itself out. That’s why I don’t have fear myself in buying the dips 1/2 shares at a time. LABU was weaker than the others we trade long TQQQ and SOXL and SOXL the strongest today. LABU finished down -5.15% and SOXL up 1.82%.
We ignored metals and miners today which did nothing after the open and missed the run higher in DGAZ into the bearish data. But DGAZ fell the rest of the day.
I know some of you traded TVIX with my play by play and did well. It gave it all up by end of day. It may come into play again and we may trade it this time. Even at 7.05 I am mildly attracted to it and yesterday I said once over 7 it may be worth a trade, but I didn’t officially call it. It got to 7.92 today but should have been much higher than that with the market fall early on.
/ES hit a fresh low at 2591.25 and 2570 still looms out there as our ideal buy spot. Presently 2629.75.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow and some Fed members speaking.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
