ETF Trading Research 5/06/2018

Nice up day for the market and wish we got more of it on Friday. I would still be nervous as a long and we are long TVIX on such a big move lower for a technical bounce that we hope comes Monday morning. /ES a little higher to 2665.75 and USD/JPY 8 cents lower to 109.03 as I type. Still like to get 3% or more on 1/2 shares TVIX to start off Monday on a good note. But looks like we need some Trump tweets or something fro Giuliani still to get there.

With oil up, RUSL moved up and RUSS turned red on the weekly. We’ll see how BRZU does as I am noticing a pattern of it struggling with the market move higher after lunch. It’s what kept me from piling on TQQQ, LABU and SOXL after they moved up 3%. But keep that strategy in mind as it would have worked for 2% to 3% Friday.

Oil shot up again here and UWT went for the 5th time green on the weekly. I have not seen this back and forth like this before. Normally when we get a reversal, it sticks for a bit. Not the last month in UWT and DWT. At least we have profited 3% to 5% from our last two DRIP trades. Got to lean long UWT and GUSH but not if they open negative or go negative. Too much whipsaw here right now to feel confident.

Nat gas did a slow climb the rest of the day after hitting a high in DGAZ of 29.19. We sold out 28.92 close enough to the highs and it closed at 28.72. Will wait to see what direction is, but have to lean to DGAZ on dips or bigger dips.

Expecting more of a dollar fall and thus gold/silver/miners rise. We’ll see what we can get out of this, sell 1/2 and ride the rest with a trailing stop.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.