ETF Trading Research 6/03/2018

Posted June 3, 2018

Technical difficulties tonight. Some data will be missing.

Nothing to say but buy any dip in stocks, metals, miners. oil, nat gas (sho0rt) and sell the dollar.

Can we get out of hand in a few of these? Yes. Therefore I have a new strategy and I am absolutely dumbfounded I have not implemented it before. It is as simple as this:

If an ETF you are in goes to a lower price than the prior day, sell.
If it goes to an intra-day low, then yes, this can be a sell too.
However, I am sometimes confident in my conviction of a higher price. And for those that want to go along with my conviction, and I realize I do have that influence, please buy the opposite now with an understanding that it is a zero sum game and you won’t make money. However, you can make money on both sides easily because your green weekly’s tell you I am on the wrong side. This is my biggest mistake and I know it. My Service would do over 100% a year if I let go of this one mistake. I will do my best to eliminate it. Believe I am trying, but most of you who have been with me for awhile know I try.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

No matter what happens in the next week, we are heading higher into July. I said let go of June and come back in July and those of you who have the confidence to do that will be rewarded. Is it hard to do that? Heck yes, but risk comes with reward. I said a long time ago we would go to /ES 2750 and we are close. We will. And we will go to 2800 too and possibly, yes, 3000. But who holds on to leveraged ETFs for that long? Not too many. I will try and call the up and down the best I can and outperform the 3,000 goal. But at the same time give you perspective of a swing trader.

Foreign Markets

BRZU and YINN will continue higher if the dollar can fall. Chinese news over the weekend may play with the YIN

Interest Rates

Neutral here.

Energy

I will do 100% opposite trade here tomorrow, per the thoughts above. But I will say with 99% confidence, 70+ in July. You can accept that or not, but I believe in it.

Using the rules above, will be happy when I see nat gas break 2.75. Until then up and down and have to live with it. However, for whatever reason, we can easily hedge this now and should. I am in the camp as I told you before we go down 5% we should exit, naturally. Realize that we can get out of any of these trades with some good money management and price protection. Believe me, it needs to become perfection for us.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

No need for insurance yet, but will if necessary. Dollar ready to crash to 87. Give it time. Please.

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Doug Eberhardt