ETF Trading Research 10/4/2017
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
We are going to start implementing the new strategy of when an ETF turns red on the weekly, to take the other side of the trade immediately, rather than wait for the green weekly. I think we can scalp half shares quickly over a day or two hold and use a trailing stop to make sure we lock in profit. Rarely when we have a red weekly hit, do we get an immediate reversal. Also, no more messing with red weekly’s and staying long the opposite trade. These are hard rules that will allow you to get out of one either with profit if you haven’t taken it already (one that was a green weekly and turned red), and get into the other side. Just go back and track it yourself. The only ETFs it hasn’t worked on that well, were the foreign ETFs and the regular stock market ETFs when we traded them. But here are the candidates that we should be licking our chops over in the near future when their opposites turn red;
RUSS, YANG, BZQ, DSLV, DGLD, LABD, UVXY, FAZ, UGAZ, TMF (some of these we are of course already in).
The real winner of this group should be UVXY, once SVXY turns red on the weekly.
To think I could have been doing this all along. If you read the nightly report that I send out I do mention touch on it (below), but have never implemented it.
I also want to emphasize something I put into each nightly report; Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. If you would have done that this morning on USLV, UGAZ, UWT after the data, and UVXY, you would have come out nicely. I am really considering doing this every time without question, no matter what our other goals are. Selling half shares on these spikes just make sense. I even put a sign up recently that sits in front of me. It says “Always look good for the service.” If I look good for the service, then we are all constantly taking profit. If I sit on trades and get greedy, then we can see pullbacks, which we did in USLV, UGAZ, UWT and UVXY.
Do a screen shot of the above 2 paragraphs and start taking more profit. It’s like the tortoise and the hare. The hare doesn’t win the race. Slow and steady profit does. There will still be some home runs possibly on half shares or in the futures. But I want to start doing these 2 things above more consistently as I am tired of days that we have had since Friday where we get no follow through.
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Today was spent just waiting for something to pop but market makers kept us in a tight range, confirmed by only 2 ETFs made it to the hot and cold corners below. No follow through on any trades, and they even took the good news in oil and pushed UWT lower. We’ve seen market makers do these kind of moves before and we’ll get long UWT again and profit nicely from it when oil breaks 50 again and especially 51 on its way to 54+.
The markets retreated from their highs and SQQQ still looks like it can take off with any weakness. UVXY we will more than likely be in again soon.
Metals and miners started off the day great, reversed some, especially silver on the USD/JPY move to just under 113 and then as the USD/JPY fell back, miners moved up but USLV and UGLD really struggled today, even though UGLD ended higher (USLV did not).
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Some ECB Policy data coming out tomorrow morning. Initial Jobless Claims, 4 FOMC members speaking, and Nat Gas at 10:30.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Nice to see JNUG and NUGT up again today, but a slow march up doesn’t really cut it. We are simply not getting any follow through, but I will say, we are up since the low on Monday 10.78%. Naturally our trades are not up that much, but we have come a long way in both NUGT and JNUG to get to where we are, close to what would have been our original stop out. Meanwhile, for the Swing Trade for anyone that started it yesterday, it is up 3.49%. That’s how we should have been trading if I didn’t get us “stuck” in the pre-Fed trade.
Silver in particular took off higher today, but then gave it all back and more. How does that even happen today? Why didn’t JNUG do the same thing? Very odd. But I will say the USD/JPY toyed with us. Tomorrow if it can get under 112.32, we are golden. Over 112.92 and JDST will come into play.
Wednesday Afternoon Price
Tuesday Afternoon Price
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
UGAZ, DWT
Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
DGAZ, UWT
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
