ETF Trading Research 12/12/2017

Posted December 12, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Played it conservative today and broke down each trade based on risk and went to plan for the most part, meaning if conservative you are up overall. We of course want moderate and aggressive to turn the corner. UWT did today.

Daily Sentiment Index – Best setup for the biggest return is when sentiment is in single digits. But technically can bounce from the 10-19 too and be a good trade. Nat gas is 13, down -4 today. S&P/Nasdaq 86 and 83 at the highs. Silver up 3 to 13 and gold up to to 15.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Lots of data and the Fed tomorrow. Core CPI in the morning and Crude Oil Inventories. Trump speaking (tell me that’s not planned) and the Fed in the afternoon followed by a conference.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Extreme volatility tomorrow and we are positioned for it. You have to be ready to sell UVXY at least half shares on a spike. Any surprises at all and it bounces 30%. But I expect 5% from it at some point tomorrow, perhaps just after the Fed. We only got a slight move up in it end of day. Most everyone knows the Fed will raise rates, so surprised they didn’t move markets lower today after the initial rise.

Foreign Markets

RUSL we took some profit but YINN didn’t give us a chance. Rare for a new red weekly opposite trade.

Interest Rates

TMV we finally took the profit from after waiting for 2% to hit but come up just short.

Energy

Oil we were patient for and now got some good data so look to get out with some profit tomorrow if we get some good storage data. Take off 1/2 shares if we are up 2% or more pre-market.

Nat gas has thrown most everyone I know for a loop. To be bullish it now means you are looking for something that’s just not there. This would be a good time for market makers to run it up 10 cents for no reason. They are in full control. Weather no longer matters.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

We were patient and took the trade in metals and miners 1/2 shares pre-Fed. Expect some volatility but with rates falling and that flash crash in USD/JPY, I like what I am seeing. Any spike up tomorrow I would consider selling half. Perhaps some short covering comes in as well. Gold did rebound with silver off the lows.

Tuesday Afternoon Price

Monday Night Price

Friday Night Price

Thursday Afternoon Price

Wednesday Afternoon Price

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

Today’s Hot Corner:

RUSL, GUSH, SVXY, UWT

(UWT GUSH new green weekly)

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UVXY, RUSS, DRIP, LABU

(RUSS and YANG new red weekly’s)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt