ETF Trading Research 3/13/2018

Posted March 13, 2018

ANNOUNCEMENT; The updated for 2018 version of Buy Gold and Silver Safely is available on Amazon.com. In it I provide an updated view on the economy and where we are headed, along with fresh data and analysis on the gold market. I think you’ll appreciate it and get a better understanding of why and how gold fits into a diversified portfolio. Feel free to post this link to social media or send by email to others. You’ll be doing them and you a good service as the more who know about what’s going on, the more who will discover precious metals investing and drive prices for us higher in the long run.

Go to this link: http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/the-book-buy-gold-and-silver-safely-2018-update-announcement/

Also, if you do purchase it, please be so kind to leave a review. It would be greatly appreciated. Thank you in advance.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Not going to complain about the results today. I do think end of day though I should have sold DWT, DRIP and DGAZ. It was a wild day somewhat, moving higher then lower after the Tillerson announcement. Hard to trust anything at this point.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Retail Sales tomorrow will be interesting as aparrel for whatever reason has been doing well. Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30. OPEC Repot and Business Inventories along with PPI. Busy morning.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Yesterday I said; “Hope to get more from it tomorrow and see if we can get SQQQ to trigger. Market can still go either way, but after today feel better about leaning shorter. TVIX can take off if that’s the case.” We got in both and did well. Some of you may have taken profit and that’s just fine. This market hasn’t given too many runs on the short side, but I am holding out for one come Friday and into next week. I have last week to make up for some in TVIX and got a good chunk today and some yesterday.

Foreign Markets

I did say today that BZQ, RUSS and YANG would be good for any market fall if it takes hold. Maybe more so than SQQQ.

Interest Rates

TMF looking good for a move. TMV red on the weekly. Get over 18.45 and we may go more finally. Would signify a rush to safety possibly if the market does finally

Energy

DWT we probably should have sold 1/2 shares at least and gone home about flat in DRIP. Not sure my brain was working 100% at the end of the day not to see this and Nat Gas below. Dollar may be the key tomorrow here and we also have data in the AM. Like to maybe be out with profit on half or all in the morning. I do think we can see the correlation of oil going lower and market going lower, so tomorrow’s report may dictate other trades. Also, GUSH signaled green on the weekly.

We didn’t get as big a move in nat gas as I wanted and if we go over 2.81 we have to keep a stop. I probably should have had us go home about flat here. If we get a move up I won’t like it. I don’t think the risk of holding was worth it after today’s price action.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

I pay attention to my data below. In it there is some strength building in metals and miners. In fact, the short side only lasted a couple days. CPI was flat and metals went up. But not that much. Today was more an inverse dollar day for gold, but it really should have went up more than it did, and same with miners. JNUG and NUGT were actually negative on the day. We have to watch the dollar for clues here. 1/2 long in JNUG and we’ll see if we even get an opportunity to buy lower. If there is a market sell off, it would fit though. A run to safety in treasuries and a stronger dollar would come into play.

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Doug Eberhardt