ETF Trading Research 4/18/2018
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
Did well with TVIX today and the 4 days in the cold corner came out ok as we sold at the right time in both cases. Despite the up and down whipsaw today, I think we handled it pretty well and gave TVIX one more shot that we sold out of where we ended the day. End of day we should have got that back if TVIX wasn’t held down.
We did get profit out of UGAZ and I think we will again on a further dip in the AM if we are lucky enough to buy it lower pre-market.
A word on metals; Trace back to when UGLD, USLV, JNUG and NUGT first turned green on the weekly. With the automated service, we would have capitalized on these more than we have, into yesterday and today’s bigger move in them. At least we have that to look forward to. More on metals below.
RUSL was our big overnight winner and the only reason I sold was to hedge the losses in DWT and DRIP. It did move higher though. 5.26% from it isn’t bad though.
Regarding oil, there is a lesson to be learned here. I have learned my lesson enough times to know now to just sell after hours the oil trade we are opposite of if data comes out against the trade. Better to take a smaller loss than a bigger loss. We got out of DWT and DRIP and stayed away the rest of the day.
Someone asked me pre-market what I thought about staying in the ETFs that we were long and I called us out of. You may be able to learn something from the exchange as I will post it below;
Morning Doug,
I can only state what I state on them. They all have a good bounce potential but I only like trading them on up days if they are tanking on the charts. DWT and DRIP twice now at least have seen them reverse lower. Now it is a crap shoot on oil because of later storage data, and dollar went flat for JDST. I took the losses and will regroup, while looking for better opportunities that I don’t have to guess on. You could use some of those sells to add to TVIX possibly.
Later in the day I reached out to him;
TVIX worked out if you sold and bought it. Hope you did.
And sold for profit to make up for the losses.
Now that’s what I like to hear!
Sell the unknown and buy what has the propensity to move higher based on what we had to work with.Great job! as I know it’s not easy to sell a loser.Make it automatic to sell your losers and don’t second guess yourself and you’ll be around a long time I think.And take some profit now and then. Look at TVIX today and if we didn’t take profit. Yikes!
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Philly Fed Manu the big one tomorrow. 3 more Fed members speaking tomorrow. This has to be a record for a week. Why all the “defense” of what they are doing? The answer is, they are worried about what’s to come down the road. They know their policy is wrong headed and a recession is on the horizon with the higher rates. They are protecting themselves so they have ammunition to fight the recession with the lowering of the rates they just raised, more QE and even negative interest rates if necessary. Their balance sheet, which they are slowly unwinding, is a mess. What else they got to fight the recession if they didn’t raise rates now?
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
