ETF Trading Research 4/25/2017
Today’s Trades – Current Trades (Non-Green – Bought/Sold/Hold) – Those highlighted in Yellow we are still long.
Today in the pre-market report I could have made the call in JDST at 18.50 when I mentioned it but didn’t get a big enough pullback in it to go long and didn’t want chase. Wish I went long then but we did get 2.25% or more from it if you sold the few times I mentioned it higher. I finally called us out and switched to JNUG which after hours has hit 4.56 and we are up 3.17% on it. DGAZ we called long yesterday and even though it was green on the weekly didn’t like the price action and got us out with 3.14% on half and 2.27% on the other half. Made up for the DGAZ trade yesterday a bit but I also know that some of you held onto DGAZ and didn’t get stopped out. DGAZ after we sold today preceded to move below where we even bought it yesterday which isn’t good price action, so we’ll look at UGAZ tomorrow. We also got stopped out of UWT and finally caught UWT for a run but the data came out not as good after hours and it fell back. We are still up on it however and have a stop in the profit. See energy section below for more on oil.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Crude Oil Inventories tomorrow at 10:30 the only market moving data.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Stock Market
Cramer says the VIX weakness is showing that the S&P can go all the way to 2450.
I had us get out of TQQQ and FAS yesterday with around 3% profit but should have kept as Trump gave in to the Democrats on the wall issue as part of the budget and it looks like we will avoid a government shutdown. I read Trump wrong there as I thought he would fight it more as many times as he mentioned it on Twitter. So I went with being flat instead. I never chased them after that and can’t say whether Cramer is right or not, but can say we’ll trade it the best we can. I didn’t hurt us too much today with the 3% on JDST and getting into JNUG but we really should watch UVXY for opportunities each day and trade it long once it turns positive for the day with stops. We can’t be afraid of trading it just because it is beaten down. It does however need a little international news from N. Korea or something to get it going. The move higher might be on some good earnings, but we’ll see how things turn out and if Cramer is right.
Foreign Markets
Still ignoring the foreign markets. No new trend at all there. I do find it very interesting the U.S. markets are not dragging foreign markets up. At least Russia, Brazil and China anyway. So odd to me it has been so long since any negative news on YANG.
Interest Rates
TMV is another one I gave up too early on yesterday. It may be topping out here for now at 21.93.
Energy
UWT finally gets going and the data comes out worse than expected. Can’t catch a break with it. Se first chart for how to play it. Please keep a stop on this and if we are up pre-report I want to take profit. Should have booked the 4%. Got a little greedy.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Has the gold bear market ended? Maybe. we’ll know more by tomorrow I think. Just have to see how a stronger dollar would play with gold miners. The dollar fell all the way down with gold. Will it rise with gold now? We are close to a run in JNUG or NUGT either way. Stops are tight and JNUG is scalps only until it turns green which will be a lot higher than where it is now. Remember, that last run up JNUG never turned green on the weekly. DUST took this long to turn green on the weekly and was a big day for it but you’ll notice my caution below as it is 2 days now on the hot corner with JDST. This means that it will struggle to move higher.
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
JDST, DUST, LABU, GUSH, DSLV, YINN, TMV, UDOW, UWT, DGLD, SOXL (special note: SOXL, UDOW and LABU all turned green on the weekly and are buys at the open but I will throw out a little caution because they are on their second day on this Hot Corner list. Might be tougher to get profit from. DUST turned green on the weekly also but we are long JNUG.
Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
JNUG, NUGT, DRIP, LABD, USLV, UVXY, YANG, TMF, SDOW, DWT, SOXS (these bold colored ETFs are one’s to watch tomorrow).
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities too. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.
