ETF Trading Research 5/08/2018

We got our moves but unfortunately didn’t get TVIX to take off for us. Could have got 1% as I said on all of those we were short the market. I am leaning bullish now but have to see how tonight plays out. No fear in this market. That’s for dang sure. Even with Trump sounding like a dictator today. Market doesn’t care, but it did give us a chance to profit, if you sold the news.

Foreign ETFs now showing a little more strength. BRZU still lower than where we sold it so a move over 37.22 we should be in again to get our Monday loss back. Keep that price in mind. We hit 36.43 and we may enter earlier tomorrow if positive. Keep in mind if we kept it all the way down today, it would have been -14.56% lower we would have had to sit through. I don’t like ever doing that, so keep the stop. We would have been long BZQ, but unfortunately it is only 2X not 3X. We’ll get long BRZU and the others for any ride up. YINN in particular strong today and YANG a red weekly. Keep an eye on it tomorrow over 32.94.

Tough day to trade oil but if I would have concentrated on it, I think I may have came out ahead on a few trades, as volatile as it was. I did make mention of GUSH which kept going higher so at least I had one that I gave a signal as an option. Crazy day in oil with Iran speculation. Crude oil stocks down 1.85M barrels last week after a build of 3.427M the prior week. Data showing a draw is bullish and we’ll see how tomorrow plays out.

Nat gas rose to begin with and that sharp move down we could have probably bought. I did mention it at one point and it moved higher but I didn’t have the confidence.

Still waiting on the dollar reversal and of course anything new in Syria would be good for gold. Doesn’t seem to matter to TVIX which didn’t budge on the news above. I wouldn’t pay attention to the red weekly’s below on JNUG and NUGT. Was a whipsaw day that triggered levels.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.