ETF Trading Research 9/13/2018

Posted September 13, 2018

Today we saw JNUG take off and then give it back. This is a day traders market, not a buy and hold and if you read through the alerts today you’ll have my thoughts on where we are and where we’re going.

I am trusting my system more and we never got a green weekly with metals and miners so it told us to be cautious. We did get some green weeklies in TQQQ, SVXY and SOXL to join UDOW. Notice end of day TVIX broke to a new low. It all fits and I am looking to profit from the ETFs below tomorrow based on the system.

I made a suggestion for DGAZ before data and you could have profited from it or my thoughts after data where I gave 2.70 as a potential target. DGAZ moved up all day. I think it is in buy the dip mode.

Oil didn’t make sense today so stayed away. It may see a pop tomorrow if /ES goes over 2907. After hours it is 2905.75. It never broke 2900 so that’s good if we can get /ES over 2907 tomorrow to test 2920 next.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

CPI tomorrow will be important for gold is what I said yesterday and it was as it gave it a nice pop. Tomorrow we have Core Retail Sales, and a bunch of other important data coming out.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Markets flipped long with the CPI data. We got long. See if we can get a little run or not. LABU might be a laggard to catch on the way up if it opens positive tomorrow with a stop if it went negative. As long as Trump stays quiet, the market should continue higher with my signals.

Foreign Markets

YINN and RUSL did well but BRZU didn’t join them. They benefited from the weaker dollar but now we have to wonder if it will continue with the dollar rebounding a bit.

Interest Rates

TMV went red on the weekly.

Energy

Last night I said DGAZ should take over, especially if data is bearish. I also said it might be worth a speculative position before data for aggressive traders that you can add to. Would have worked out well for you and I think still can.

Neutral to bullish on oil if market wants to move higher.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Yesterday I said we “Might get a pullback at some point tomorrow in JNUG but if not in anything under 7.50 would be good pre-data.” We saw JNUG was around 7.50/7.54 pre-market and then shot up Post data. I also said “whether or not we have another shakeout, I think that can simply be hedged with JDST rather than selling.” I changed that today and wanted a sell with the move up if you were in profit as we couldn’t continue or to keep stop at break even. DXY never broke 94.50 but only by 7 cents. Buy the dips for now in DUST should play out ok for a bit. DUST as a hedge to your longs as well. One more low can still come with metals and dollar to 97/98 possibly. Can’t discount that possibility if China trade deals don’t work out here. You got to have a hedge or go to non-leverage trades you can hold longer. I would be 50% in on metals and miners non-leverage if you are not in on this dip.

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Doug Eberhardt