ETF Trading Research 9/6/2018

Today saw the market break down to a fresh low but then pushed back up end of day to about where it broke down. Overall I had called it a professionals day early on to save us from whipsaw, but gave out a few suggestions for TVIX that some might have taken. However, I saw no reason to make any official calls. They pushed JNUG down early after testing yesterday’s high. They pushed oil down after a bullish report. They pushed even nat gas up after a bearish report some. And the stock market ended the day mixed as it started with the DOW up and /ES lower. Data today was overall positive but it didn’t matter to the market. Price action is what matters and we will be following it more closely with the new system. That’s what it is designed to do.

We will see if we want to move higher by tomorrow I think but most likely we will scalp any trades tomorrow and go home flat. I did get the permanent computer setup today and from this point forward my eyes will be glued to it and making calls when prices hit targets and ignoring the noise. We are going to test it via beta soon and then go from there to release it to all. I don’t have time-frame yet for us to go live, but I am live now and will stick with the program and calls.

The market may get a China reaction overnight or over the weekend and we have to be on our toes for any longs. I imagine we might have a volatile market tomorrow where we may profit from both sides. Not a professionals day but news can hit us at any point in time. Neutral the markets right now based on the data.

BRZU recovered with a weaker dollar but YINN couldn’t muster much and RUSL fell -2.85%. RUSL and YINN may be good trades here soon to join BRZU which Brazil is on holiday tomorrow.

TMV gave way to TMF with the down /ES today.

Metals and miners are still in buy the dip mode and DGLD turned red on the weekly and dollar did try and break down but still above that stubborn 95 mark. I think it breaks it and we move lower for the dollar and higher for metals and miners. JNUG over 7.54 and we should get there. Nice after hours moves in it so far.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.