ETF Trading Research 11/14/2018

Bad day for DGAZ and had a chance with the double down to get out even and should have taken it and started over. The mistake was holding overnight against a green weekly. I have a lot of work to do with getting us out and will do so. I’ll still call the ups and downs in nat gas from what I see, but the good news is, we got an after hours bounce and may have bottomed as DSI (Daily Sentiment Index came close enough to a negative divergent higher high at 96. 2.90 is where we need nat gas to take off from.

Futures got down to that lower area I gave today and now at 2700 I want to see the run up to 2800.

The reason I didn’t turn on data today is I called today the bottom for what we are in. I had no idea they would do that overnight and once stuck like that, you have to work your way out of it. We did early on but then the bottom fell out. We are 4 days in the cold corner now with DGAZ and it will rebound based on sentiment and we’ll at least get a short term bounce. I’ll try where to cut the losses at this point and meanwhile get the other trades up and running to decent profit to lighten the sting. 

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Tons of data tomorrow with oil an important one.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
We should have bottomed now but it seems every bounce is sold so far. I’ll do an early morning report that will try and give us some direction for the next move. 2680 was my line in the sand but a bigger washout can still come to 2650. Prefer of course not to see it, but SOXL did end up today and TQQQ only down a bit, but LABU has more work to do to get back up. Like to see these 3 hold up on any further move south if it comes. Then 2800 if not more in a whipsaw fashion. May keep data off tomorrow till we get out of this. I’ll still make some calls as if one is not in anything.
Borrowed this chart from a friend as a roadmap with dates.
Foreign Markets
YINN was up today with RUSL. Did not follow U.S. market south. That is hopefully a bullish sign here for U.S. markets and today was the final leg down for now.
Interest Rates
For a down day like we had, TMF didn’t show a ton of buying. Tells me this move lower in stocks was overblown.
Energy
Short covering never came today after the open, but did before the open to fool me into thinking we had bottomed. Big mistake on my part. As I said above, have to work hard to get over this. I will go and out of DGAZ to do this if I have to with a “trading” tranche while holding onto the rest, unless we get blown out with a move below 2.90. Never saw this kind of one day move before in a legitimate leveraged ETF.
Oil data tomorrow is important and if positive for oil, it is a good sign for a bounce that will take markets higher with it.
Precious Metals and Mining
The metals move will be short lived and still looking for the move to 1260/1280’s for our longs. DUST 3 days in the Cold Corner should have had us looking at NUGT for a reversal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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