ETF Trading Research 11/15/2018

Posted November 15, 2018

It was a good comeback for us today in DGAZ. We sold near the top on the run up, waited for a reversal to take hold and then traded in and out successfully to get some of that loss back from the madness known as yesterday. What really sucks though is nat gas is back at the price it was but DGAZ we couldn’t recoup all the losses. Not happy about that but we learn from this that it makes ZERO sense to hold ANY ETF long term and expect anything from it in a way of a rebound. I have learned this lesson as well. A day or two or a week WITH the trend, fine. But NEVER against. We must keep stops. There was nothing we could do with the DGAZ trade after falling so much so quickly, so we had to work our way out of it. We actually worked our way out of it yesterday but didn’t sell flat. With the rebound today, I had to make the decision at that first support area to sell or not and we did. Then got back in for 14.88% of our loss back.

Meanwhile we had a comeback in our longs and got our first signal with SOXL, which we did lock in a couple percent early and missed more because of the flaw in my system I am working on, which seems to be fixed as I was able to buy it again without issues. We have a little profit going in TQQQ and LABU had a nice comeback today but we are still down a hair on it. Over 2750 is what we need on /ES and I think we can run a bit higher with these longs. 10% minimum is what I am looking for.

Lastly we got long miner shorts and I like our odds on this as the dollar was up today but miners didn’t look over their shoulder to recognize it.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Data was flat and bad today.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

As I said above, over 2750 is needed for the bigger run. But NVDA missed earnings and hit SOXL after hours here. Can’t catch a break. Was having such a good run and SOXS gave the sell signal. Hopefully it blows over. /ES 2730 and holding. Good comeback with LABU and TQQQ.

Foreign Markets

YINN I missed the buy and we should have at least scalped it today. RUSL up with BRZU as well with the U.S. markets moving higher.

Interest Rates

TMV should take over for TMF for awhile as the markets move higher.

Energy

After a crazy 48 hours in nat gas maybe we can get back to normal moves and profit taking. Lean short a bit still and see where tomorrow brings us.

Oil data came in negative for oil with a big build. UWT ended positive but gave up about 5% as we stayed away. Still think we get a pop in oil with the market.

Precious Metals and Mining

Still think the metals move will be short lived and still looking for the move to 1260/1280’s for our longs. We’ll look for a reversal lower in metals and miners tomorrow with this dollar strength.

Doug Eberhardt