ETF Trading Research 2/25/2019
We got 3 sell signals today in UWT, JNUG and NUGT, which means one should be looking to DWT, JDST and DUST for profit. DWT got good news from a Tweet by Trump today where he was complaining about high oil prices. This is a dangerous precedent Trump is doing and his comments are affecting markets both ways as we know. What does the market have left to trade on when his Tweets no long work the way they do? The answer is data and the data ain’t that great. This market, as I tried to emphasize this morning as it shot higher, is built on fluff and admittedly has gone higher than what I thought it would, but we should see a significant pullback and perhaps today is the beginning of that with the VIX and /VX higher with TVIX finishing up more than 3%. We do need LABD, SOXS and SQQQ to kick into gear and get the sell signals on their opposites for some 10%+ moves in them.
2800 in /ES was broken today but the last half hour buying programs kicked in (magically) not allowing the low of 2 794.50 to be broken. 2750 is the next major support so like to see a move to there at least on this leg down from the highs. Let’s see if we get follow through tomorrow. Outside of TVIX, DRIP may lead the way here following oil’s lead lower. Over 10. 70 should do the trick. LABD gave back most of what it gained last week so has some catching up to do again as there was some company activity in a buyout that buoyed LABU today. Watch SOXS to lead as well on any downturn that is allowed at this point. Like to see the move lower to end of month, the 28th, minimum.
BRZU is another ETF that is lower today and would like to see it down 5% more tomorrow and get BZQ going higher. YINN though up with China markets up overnight not helping there.
Trump did his best today to try and support the falling market from the highs with timely posts. But not the same effect he had wanted. These were earlier today as the market was heading higher, then before the close as it had come off its highs by a good chunk. The latter was just a repeat of what he already said. Somewhat desperate to repeat like that but we’ll see soon if /ES is allowed to fall or not. Again, nothing but fluff in this market.
Watch the dollar for gold/silver and let’s see if we get the sell signal on USLV and UGLD to confirm lower miner prices tomorrow. Like to see gold break 1300 if possible and silver to follow suit. Not a time to be long but for scalps only if dollar is red, especially now since we have the sell signal. Smart money should be jumping into JDST and DUST with trailing stops. Can be a little volatile still until USLV and UGLD signal a sell.
UGAZ was a nice run the last few trading days and the last push got it to a weekly buy. I think the easier money is made now though once we get the sell on it as we head into the end of winter, so we will look for a spot to go short, however one can still trade UGAZ long with a trailing stop with this signal of strength. I expect it to be somewhat volatile and the higher it goes, the bigger the DGAZ trade will become.
