ETF Trading Research 3/17/2019

We have all the signals that the bull market still has legs but won’t get short again till we get a reversal somewhere. The way to play the bull is to buy at the open with a trailing stop if futures are higher or are breaking to new highs. This bull extention though has the Fed this week, however, the Fed is doing nothing to get in the way of the bull. It wants the market higher and my guess is behind the scenes doing some buying to get it higher. I can attest that it is NOT the data that is pushing this market higher. No way. And it is difficult for me to let go of the fact that data doesn’t matter any longer. Well, eventually it does, but not right now. At some point this year, just as in the beginning of the year, TVIX will return 100%. That’s my take on this. We just don’t know if it is from 15 or soon. Can it go higher than 100%? Sure it can. When we get the final blow off to 2200 in /ES, that will be the home run we will be waiting for. In the mean time, I got us out of the short a couple Friday’s ago with small damage and have been concentrating on nat gas and metals/miners with some calls since instead of chasing the market higher. We will whittle our way into some good trades until we get the clear signal to go short for a possible 100 point move south. Will it come from 2850 or 2885? I don’t know. But my guess is somewhere in that range.

Gold and oil and nat gas flat to start off. Nat gas is in short any moves up or buy DGAZ on any dip in price. Metals should head lower still post Fed and as the market moves higher. Watch the dollar there for clues. And oil should head higher with the market.

I will follow what my system says and try to ignore everyone else. Look at the colors of the table below and let’s try and trade with them and if they change, trade that way. The system works.