ETF Trading Research 4/12/2018
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
Today I made a gutsy call that of course was difficult to do and we’ll find out tomorrow if it made sense or not. I’m not ashamed of taking profit, but I hate being wrong on something too, and my read today was that something was going to happen overnight regarding Syria. So far, we not only struggled at USD/JPY 107.40 but /ES at 2670 even though we broke through it and potentially trapped some longs. In the last 20 minutes or so, they started to bring futures down to 2666 and as I type we are down another 10 points to 2655.75. TVIX is starting to pop up a bit. It’s funny to see a spread of 15 cents after hours on it. Investors don’t know what to do with it as I see trades go off at 9.44 and then 9.27. That’s the kind of night it will be if the Trump administration acts and so far I think being flat is just fine with 1/2 shares in USLV only (goal was under 10 but I’m ok with 1/2 shares as insurance here).
We got lucky with DGAZ to get out with a little profit. I am still negative on nat gas but if we go over 2.71 tomorrow then we may have to adjust to a long in UGAZ till we go into DGAZ again, or we may just sit it out as I really don’t like taking nat gas home over a weekend as Monday mornings can hurt you if on wrong side.
Speaking of hurting; the oil trade just isn’t working out just yet. It will eventually, but not yet. I won’t lose site of what’s coming in DWT and DRIP, but only tried them today because of the 3 days on the cold corner for DWT. The Syria issue has brought just too much uncertainty even though the data for the week would have been with us and we should have moved lower today however it bounced up with the market.
TQQQ and LABU gave us some good profit today and TQQQ is lower than where we sold it as I type with an ask of 146.73.
I technically have no regrets except that we didn’t get GBTC on Wednesday as it gapped up 10% this morning.
If we do get any negative move from any Syria issues overnight, we will look to buy the following tomorrow or Monday on the dip;
TQQQ, LABU, RUSL, GBTC and if so inclined; SOXL and UDOW. For metals we will look to the dollar for some answers.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
JOLTs Job Openings tomorrow and 3 Fed members speaking.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
