ETF Trading Research 4/24/2018

Once we broke through 2660 today, I knew we needed a hedge and TVIX was the hedge. It’s just unfortunate on the first attempt we got stopped out by a lousy penny (I can see on the chart where it bounced off of 2660 but then cracked through again where we should have re-bought), but several of you emailed me that you stuck with it and profited nicely. Those are the things I can’t measure with this trading service, but hopefully my using the word “hedge” of your longs paid off for more of you. We have had a nice bounce off the 2616 level in /ES to 2635.25 now and the USD/JPY has also bounced.

Data came in good today, but data we are seeing means nothing and neither does good earnings when the Fed is selling. The selling should stop and we should get a pop come May, but we have to get through April first.

The good news is we locked in some decent profit today and you can’t count the fact you are down on curren trades as a loss as I see 2750 still in /ES and some good profit coming our way.

I still like DGAZ and JDST/DUST. I think nat gas may have found a top here and we’ll know tomorrow after the open and market maker moves and I think metals and miners are headed lower once we get a pop up in the markets and dollar possibly moves up (I think we fall no matter what dollar does, but prefer a bounce in the dollar over 91).

In last night’s report I said; “2610 is next support on the downside and we would have to ride out the longs if we did decide to move lower. Unlike many who to Elliott Wave, I am in the camp on one side typically. That camp is long the market right now into May.”

My reply to that tonight is we didn’t hit 2610 but came without 6 points at 2616 and now are 2636. Hopefully that was it and of course we are not into May yet. TQQQ and SOXL both bouncing after hours.

Great sell on RUSL, BRZU and YINN today for 5.25%, 4.57% and 6.89%. We have bought all back lower full shares and YINN half shares looking for a dip in the morning to buy remaining 1/2 shares.

We got about an even trade on DWT and made 5% on DRIP. I expect more out of both now with tonight’s data. My only concern is will they move up while the market rebounds? We’ll have to trade them on price action alone possibly. They are both due for a nice bounce, Trump’s Tweet’s and threats on IRAN aside.

DGAZ we stopped out early and got back in lower as nat gas finds a top we hope around 2.81. Like to see a gap down in nat gas in the morning.

2 days on the hot corner for JDST and DSLV and I think I jumped the gun a little bit on our trade. Still, with the dollar down today 20 cents, JDST held up well and DUST too. They have moved a little lower after hours, but I am in the camp we fall pretty good here. 

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.