ETF Trading Research 5/13/2018

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Happy Mother’s Day to all the Mom’s here and above!

Our goal was to get profit on Friday and try and go home flat as much as possible, or take home shares that we couldn’t get too much damage from because of news or events. We did well with switching from bull to bear in metals and miners, as hard as that was for me to do and profited from JDST and DSLV. We got out of the overnight holds early with little damage and stayed away from the more difficult market trades. We sold 1/2 our DWT and DRIP for decent profit.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

Lot’s of ECB speakers overnight and into the morning and OPEC Monthly Report as well as tomorrow night Chinese Industrial Production which can affect any China trades.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Leaning short the market after 7 straight days up in the Dow, with /ES down to the 2700 level and we’ll look to get long for the summer run possibly there. I am open to lower on any news though.
Foreign Markets
YANG didn’t get us the trade I wanted after 3 days on the cold corner. Was about a flat trade and with data coming tomorrow night, should hold off on YINN and YANG till after. Neutral here for now.
Interest Rates
TMV red on weekly. Neutral for now with slight lean to TMF.
Energy
DRIP and DWT we did well with. I am still chipping away at some bad trades in DRIP and DWT and it has paid off the last 3 weeks. I’m like an elephant and never forget bad trades. But I always learn from them.
UGAZ having turned green on the weekly would normally have us out of DGAZ, but the worst case is 2.85 for nat gas and I would add to position if it fell lower on Monday, not sell and re-buy. This should end up being a big trade for us.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Calling metals well overall. I do think we may get a further pullback Monday, but we will look to start positions long again. The more we pull back, the more I want to get long and stay long. 4 times we have got long and 4 times I have called us out. I’m getting tired of that and want this to be the last pullback before 1377 gold and blast off.
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

 

 
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