ETF Trading Research 5/19/2019

Going ahead and writing tonight’s script out for next week while it is fresh in my head. Most of what we saw today was solidification of a topping pattern, as long as we break below 2852.50 on Monday. Prefer to open up below there, test that number as a resistance level, then fall lower and see if we can’t push to 2800 and then 2775. If we broke 2775, then markets will fall for a bit. That’s what we are looking for.

I’ll repeat what I wrote in the last alert after hours on Friday, in case you missed it.

We couldn’t crack 2880 and now a little bounce. We came close, but right now, with about an hour and a half left, will most likely ride out any moves and stick with the half shares short and see if overnight we get some selling like last night. Last night was great to see in the sense that overnight bears are still alive. There’s nothing really bullish about this move up except Trump caving in on Auto tariffs for 6 months, but we still have issues with a deal overall. And we still have Iran looming in the background. We were darn patient on the way up to find a spot to go short and waited for our targets to hit, and caught the first move lower off the high so far. We can keep a stop if we break 2894 at this point and if we do break 2880 then look for the place to add. Timing the top isn’t easy, but I think we are close to it. At least based on that last selloff.

TVIX up to 27.07 after hours and I expect it to rise even more as long as Trump stays off Twitter with some bogus tariff news. We know he blows a lot of smoke on Twitter and maybe even if he does Tweet something this weekend, the markets may be finally done with his commenting and just fall and possibly fall hard. Interesting dynamic going on to say the least, but I see a lot of weakness out there. More than the last trip south. Hold on tight as it will be a wild ride possibly.

I am intrigued by metals and miners here but see them falling a bit more with the market if we get the market to fall. If so, I will be comprising a list with a little more homework on the best individual miners to hold. One that we had been trading was already bought out for an almost 40% premium and we missed that by one day. I do like silver and silver miners especially as we move forward. Hi ho!

Nat gas a little wishy washy but maybe this run up in UGAZ and nat gas will take a pause and we drop. Lean that way.

Notice that BZQ and YANG are leading markets lower with only RUSS to catch up to them.

GBTC (Bitcoin) moved to a sell. Was down 13% overnight and climbed some. Pretty volatile the last few trading sessions.