ETF Trading Research 6/06/2018
Got the worst news possible with oil today. And I misread the size of the miss as I thought it was slight. And then should have just bailed as I figured they would take out the lows. The one thing I’ll do with it now is manage it if it wants to go higher and take profit along the way, and those who want to buy and hold to over 70 for the summer, can swing it long. For me it’s like metals now. Don’t really care if it goes down but we are in it for the July time-frame and I think buying the dip as it goes lower is fine, but I would only buy the dip on days it is positive with a stop at the point it goes negative or breaks to a lower low. I’m going to try and keep track of UWT and GUSH and work on not just getting the 10% back, but an additional 10% on them. If we went to 70+ though, the profit would be more.
I have been letting January interfere with my short term analysis and holding too long past the 5% mark. At least /ES keeps moving higher, but today the move lower had no legs and we could have flipped long once /ES broke 2758 as it never looked back. Should have stopped out of TVIX then too. I saw it happening live too and didn’t say a thing even though I knew to. Something definitely off with my brain today. And I did give up Rock Stars but drank one late yesterday and sometimes it makes me wonder. There is no excuse though for not keeping a stop at -5%. I am letting metals and miners slide on that rule a bit but they sure need to get going here soon. Last thing I want is one more move up in the dollar to test 95.
DGAZ did take the day off and we’ll see if we can’t get going. Only fell back 1% though. BRZU has it’s work cut out for it still and RUSL moved a bit higher than our stop out point for the small loss.
GBTC we took profit along with LABU, TQQQ and SOXL.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Initial Jobless Claims pre-market and Nat Gas Storage at 10:30.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
