ETF Trading Research 9/11/2017

Today’s price action was a relief that the world wasn’t falling apart. The Dow was up over 250 points at the close and futures are slightly higher today. We should see a continued rally of sorts and the only regret in not taking a long this morning was not calling SVXY which you’ll recall was our old standby for buying into a bullish move. SVXY opened at 79.16 and hit a high of 81.17, closing at 80.69 and would have been a good scalp. Instead I concentrated on JDST for the buy. Can’t catch them all which is why I put SVXY as a permanent trade when it opens higher for a scalp. However, I did think about it and could have called it but didn’t, meaning I didn’t have as much faith in the continuation.

I am very close to a call in YANG, RUSS, BZQ but they may still need a catalyst. They only teased us last week for a day.

TMF we are in half shares still and will see what we get with price action on Monday and decide on taking the profit or holding on.

While UGAZ had triggered red on the weekly on the move down to 11, I am still in the buy UGAZ camp. But I don’t want to give away profit so we have to be careful here. 3.10 is my target but price action trumps targets. We are stuck at current resistance.

Oil I still think we can move over 50 and higher but we took our profit today. See what tomorrow brings. I don’t mind locking in profit overall and we are stuck at current resistance.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Special shout out to the National Debt passing $20 trillion. Anyone here CNBC talking about it today? Just curious as I had the sound down. My guess is no, but if someone heard it, shoot me an email to confirm. Quick check of the CNBC website and no mention. Quick look at Zerohedge and naturally they are on top of the debt situation.

Where to with gold? The answer is higher, but we have to see what legs the downturn has as the dollar moves up. From my perch I still see a dollar bounce in the works that can put pressure on metals and miners. USD/JPY also bounced off the recent lows and is over 109 again.

Did you see that end of day price move in JDST where it dropped a point and a half? Something just not right about that.

Remember what I said about sentiment being near the highs in gold last week? Today we dropped -11 to 62 from 73 and we more than likely have more to fall. Also, dollar went from 7 to 15, +8.

I want to be long metals and miners again but most of the time I get a red signal, and we did on all of them, it tells me to at a minimum be neutral. If you were to buy JNUG, for example, each day it opened higher and kept a stop if it went negative, it may be a good way to test the waters. It may take a day or two though. Love to have that flash crash in JNUG for us over the next couple days. Gold under $1,300 might get me long no matter what though. Scare a few people out. We’ll stay neutral and trade price action while looking at better setups with other ETFs for now. However, gold $1,400+ is still the goal here and I am thinking $1,400 might be conservative (we also have 2 days on the cold list for JNUG and NUGT – one would get me long for sure, or a hard spike down we may go long half shares and ignore the red weekly as the hot and cold corner trades have high probabilities after 3 days). Also, reminder in case you missed it:

Also, look at that 127% rise in US Federal Spending and recall the Budget of the U.S. Government;

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/budget.pdf

President Obama said of Bush’s spending that it was “unpatriotic” increasing the national debt $4 trillion. President Obama raised it $9 trillion.

Do we understand yet that government only knows how to do one thing; Spend! If not, please read my book Illusions of Wealth.

WHEAT – the more I follow wheat here the more I get disappointed as an allocation of our capital. I want investment that are poised for a run and wheat just isn’t cutting it. I may pull the plug tomorrow if it doesn’t get going. In that table above 6.40 is support for WEAT. Below that we should more than likely keep a stop and be done with it. In other words, now or never.

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

DUST, JDST, SVXY, SOXL, YINN, FAS, DGLD, BRZU, DSLV, UGAZ, RUSL, TMV, UDOW, TQQQ, TNA

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UVXY, NUGT, JNUG, SOXS, YANG, FAZ, DGAZ, USLV, UGLD, RUSS. TMF, SDOW, SQQQ, TZA (BZQ was close at -2.94%)

Green Weekly’s

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!