ETF Trading Research 9/21/2017

Posted September 21, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

NOTE: I have cut the list of ETFs we trade down to 30. I have done so by getting rid of the ETFs that I rarely call and that are just taking up space and don’t move as much as the others; TNA, TZA, UDOW, SDOW. I would get rid of TMF and TMV as well, but I use them to track other things. SOXL and SOXS I got rid of for now but would be the first 2 to bring back if warranted. In the future when we go to full automation, I will begin adding more back. We used to do 46 of them, but as I delete some, things seem to always get better with the pickings.

No new positions today.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Tomorrow we have a boat load of central bankers speaking. They seem to be scrambling as more and more the word on the street is they are messing up big time, except for the Fed of course. But when you have the head central banker come out and say that low inflation is a mystery, how much faith do you put in Fed policy moving forward. To me they have this all wrong as far as 75% wanting to raise rates when the rest of the world and especially Japan is getting away with printing press madness.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Markets continued lower today and we have to wonder what is going to push them up from here. There is plenty to push them down from North Korea potential reaction to the market not agreeing with the Fed’s monetary policy of raising rates. Since when are higher rates good for anything? The fact the market has moved up in spite of the Fed’s moves is a little suspicious.

Foreign Markets

BZQ looking good and RUSS still hanging in there. YANG should have sky rocketed today with the S&P downgrade, but the fix must be in somehow. We’ll keep an eye on it. Just need more market weakness. I thought these would lead better than they have.

Interest Rates

TMF tried to get going today, but pulled back as the USD/JPY didn’t fall as much as we wanted. Still along for the ride I think is coming.

Energy

Turns out the exit in UGAZ was a good one yesterday. We are very happy to get back in half shares about a point lower. I do think we’ll be long remaining shares on any further dip and that 20% is in our future back up to 14 again. Here’s the catch though. The last 24 hours the move has been so fast that it has triggered a red on the weekly. This is a slight concern but look at the chart and you’ll see 11 is the floor. We’ll be in before 11 is hit and out if 11 is broken. Still, we are going to 3.40 here soon enough.

GUSH is actually looking good. UWT still lacking a bit but I have faith in oil to 53 still. Any Iranian actions to stir the pot might help as well.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Metals tread water from yesterday’s late beat down with the Fed. We’ll fight our way out of this once USD/JPY breaks down.

Thursday’s prices after hours

Wednesday’s Prices

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

DGAZ, DUST, JDST

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UGAZ, BRZU, USLV (JNUG and NUGT close)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt