ETF Trading Research 9/24/2017

Posted September 24, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

If you are a patient trader, then you will profit in understanding Friday was not a great day to trade. In fact, we’ve seen nothing but rhetoric with North Korea and President Trump all weekend and we have both futures up and metals lower. Does this make any sense at all? No. But we recognize it. Accept it. And thank you but I’ll stick with my mantra of gold higher, markets lower and oil higher overall, along with Nat Gas higher.

We are in a mutual fund approach overall and that is where my brain is at, meaning;

Gold 1400+

Nat Gas 3.40

Oil 53+

/ES 2400

Am I perfect with this mantra? Maybe. Maybe not. I give the above 75% chance of occurring and the only issue I have is a potential of markets still going higher for no reason at all. This is as fake of a market as I have ever seen in over 30 years. Schiller, and many others agree. But I have to be willing to be open and trade both sides. Toughest thing for me to do right now. As you can see, first time in over 2 years I have been calling markets, I am giving more leeway than normal. I never do that. I have my rules. But I do feel this time I am on the right side.

Some of you like the mutual fund approach here, and some of you like the day trade side of my calls. I try as much as I can to give you both, but lately, I have been trying to give you more of my medium conviction. We’ll find out this week if I am on the right side of metal’s, miner’s, oil and nat gas, as well as the markets. Friday’s action didn’t hurt, but the rhetoric between nations right now should have futures more in our direction than they presently are as you read above. We’ll see how we open. I don’t trust the bull side in markets at all, nor the bear side in commodities.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Can you explain to me one thing? Why so many central bankers speaking tomorrow? Four, between the Fed and ECB? And no economic data tomorrow. Watch for some whipsaw from market makers and a struggle to keep our faith in our positions. I have conviction in what we are in with our mutual fund approach, including that by the end of this month into October we will be at some great returns. I risk my reputation on this, I know. And it is one of the first times I’ve even said that. But I have stops on most everything but metals and miners. I have more faith in them than I do anything else. Yet I still am almost as bullish in nat gas, which we have done well with the last 4 weeks, and oil, which I still think UWT will do well and GUSH will continue to make us profit.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

/ES below 25oo is our key and Friday we finished lower at 2499.75. You see how much of an issue that is? You see what support and eventually a top that might be? I do. Dow finished lower by about 10 points. Your first key to real issues and a reason to go short the market to me is the Dow -100 or more. Then look for that -300 day and some consecutive days lower. That’s what I see. The fact we are up in futures with all that is said right now on Sunday afternoon is the biggest joke in a long time. Who is buying right now other than central banks? Who in their right mind? Seriously? And gold is lower? Really? I’ll stick with my mutual fund approach right now and feel good about it. I have to have a back bone in running this service and I am giving you my conviction now. I’m also feeling good about it.

Foreign Markets

As hard as this has been, we are positive on YANG, RUSS and BZQ right now. If we caught the bottom, 10% plus or more is in the cards.

Interest Rates

TMF was positive and we like it. Stay long.

Energy

Nat Gas we are blessed with another pullback. I say blessed, only because we have bought the bottom of this every time and profited. This should continue. Any dips we will buy,. but below 11 I will change my mind, but probably like a market maker buy all I can, so that’s where I am right now. I would bring Nat Gas down below 11 if I was in charge and wanting to shake everyone out of the so called widow maker. 3.00 break this time we should go to 3.40, not just 3.10 break.

Oil had a nice rebound and we are long with UWT and GUSH both and will stay long. 53 is first goal.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

As much as their is going on with our country right now, metals not responding. They should be responding to the egomaniacs going at it in the U.S. and NK. Gold is only a hair higher as I write this Sunday evening. I don’t have a lot of fear in lower prices and I do say buy any dips in metals and miners as I feel gold is going to over 1400 and silver over 19, possibly 20. I have been saying this for quite some time with gold and there is nothing that is changing my mind right now, even though the dollar could move higher. Watch the USD/JPY for your clues though. I do still give that relationship preference.

Metals and miners we just have to be patient for USD/JPY to first break 111 this week.

Sunday’s Price

Thursday’s Prices

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

JNUG, YANG

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

JDST, YINN, DUST

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt