ETF Trading Research 11/28/2018

Posted November 28, 2018

Only 3 ETFs are bullish for weekly and monthly, DWT, DRIP and UGAZ. They are due for a big turnaround but for some reason, not allowed to move up, whether it be storage or weather or Trump or OPEC. But believe me, they will.

Today’s story though was about Powell’s dovish statements that got the markets, metals and miners going. Usually there is a continuation of sorts and we’ll see that most likely in the morning. We only have UDOW as a green weekly and the others would turn green weekly with any further push higher. Ironically, all of the ETFs we took home last night did great today. The early morning price action had me a bit too conservative though. Powell gave the markets what they wanted to hear. Ignored the terrible Home Sales data. Ignored the GDP flatness. Ignored reduction in Consumer Spending. Ignored the bad storage build for oil.

Nat gas was another wild ride. We didn’t get hurt from it but we gave back our profits. That said, on a day when DGAZ was down -30%, we have a great trade in DGAZ ahead of us. UWT for that matter.

Metals and miners came alive. I got us out near the highs of the day and we crawled out of that hole after the fals signal NUGT gave. Mixed signals there now but slight lean bullish with the dollar weakness.

Eaked out a 1.425% gain today overall.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales tomorrow. But the big one is FOMC minutes.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

GDP didn’t give us a hint pre-Powell today and the market sputtered. Post Powell it went to the moon without really letting up. I gave to much emphasis on oil not moving up so didn’t trust the ETFs moving higher, but by the last hour they shot up while oil fell to fresh lows. So much for correlations. I have to point out that TVIX is 3 days in the Cold Corner.

Foreign Markets

YINN, BRZU and RUSL continued higher post Powell with the weaker dollar. They should still go inverse dollar or with metals/miners.

Interest Rates

Yesterday I said “TMV might take over with a market move higher now.” It did as TMF went red on the weekly.

Energy

DGAZ never had a chance today even though it tried early on. From the morning on it was another wicked day for DGAZ that I’m sure hurt a lot of traders. But not us. Tomorrow we should ride it higher, especially if we get a drop lower.

December 6th OPEC meeting is all that matters now for oil. Data once again a build and bad for oil. We got 3% out of UWT today.

Precious Metals and Mining

Last night I said “I do think we got a decent price on NUGT and can ride both up with any dollar weakness.” The weakness came from Powell’s dovish comments that pushed the dollar lower and metals/miners higher.

Doug Eberhardt