ETF Trading Research 5/15/2018
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
Made one crucial error today. That was forgetting TVIX was 4 days in the cold corner. We should have stuck with it longer. Should have also got back in once we saw the bad retail numbers. I put a price in that was too low as we came within 5 cents of it pre-market. I missed the exact open so didn’t see whether or not TVIX ticked down to 5.30 on the ask. I asked and only got replies from some that had bought lower, earlier. I even almost put in the either or trade too; “Buy TVIX either 5.30 or over 5.40.” Snooze you lose. But we did get 1% from it.
From there I decided to concentrate on JNUG and USLV and I think we bought at overall good prices. Sentiment is down to 10 for both gold and silver and don’t really care much if it falls lower than that. History shows we’ll be back up over 80 in sentiment at some point here and we’ll hold until we get there. Also, if we do dip we should have some cash for NUGT. That’s the plan I’m working.
DGAZ took it’s time but it finally moved positive today. Holding out for 2.70 in nat gas if we have the guts. Possibly lower.
It took me all day to make a market call, but finally saw what I liked and we went long SOXl and BRZU end of day. Up on both. Only issue I have here is BZQ went green on the weekly so I may scalp BRZU only tomorrow morning.
We also dabbed in GBTC for the second time this year. I saw it at these lows last week and hesitated and it moved up 10% and now going for it this time. I did mention it to watch last time, but didn’t pull the trigger. Now we are long 1/2 shares with dry powder to get last 1/2 if it falls. A 7% move can come quickly with it. Over 15.26 and we may hold for more moving stops up.
We held some shares overnight and locked in about 5% total pre-market.
No complaints today. That tells me to be more cautious tomorrow. The end of day futures move up helped us out. Like to see a break over 2715 tomorrow. USD/JPY held up the market all day so we had to go the bull side vs the bear side. Never did break below 2700 hitting 2700.50. Not bad there either as we went long just over that.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Draghi speaking in the morning. Then Building Permits, Housing Starts and Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
