ETF Trading Research 5/28/2018
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
We took some profit from SOXL, TQQQ, LABU and GBTC on Friday and still waiting on DGAZ, JNUG, USLV, BRZU. Up on YINN and the repurchase of 1/2 shares of SOXL, TQQQ, LABU.
For those of you in DGAZ, if you can ignore any downturn and hold till July, you will be rewarded greatly. I’ve already repeated my mistakes with it in ignoring the green weekly in UGAZ and hold it and I repeated the mistake in BRZU. If some of you would simply hold me accountable for such stupid mistakes when you see green weekly’s and I hold ANYTHING overnight that is opposite a green weekly, then I wouldn’t get into a situation that I do sometimes. Knowing my weaknesses and pointing them out helps you make good decisions. That’s all I care about. You proiting.
I was banking on the strike getting settled in Brazil, and after the military was brought in, the President gave into the truckers demands and has lowered gasoline prices. We may open lower in BRZU by a bunch, but will have to hold onto this. With the coming move up in the S&P into the summer, and the fall in the dollar I see coming, Emerging Markets should do well and BRZU would be a part of that. BRZU is 3 days on the cold corner and might end up 4 Tuesday and from there rebound.
First thing I notice Monday here is GBTC is breaking lower, so we will hold off on that to scoop up shares for the bigger run higher. My theory was that it would move up with the market and at this point we just have to watch price action to see if it continues.
Metals and miners are still may favorite trade moving forward. Dollar should top out if it hasn’t already. Dollar may also become irrelevant to metals and miners too. I said last week 94.50 might be it for the dollar. We are at 94.34 now. Below 94 and we should be on our way to under 90 and the big move in metals we have been waiting for. If we fell any further, I would add a position in NUG T or UGLD instead of trading some others that are called. The move higher would be faster I think. Can sell those while keeping the JNUG/USLV which should outperform all others.
What I am looking for is a dip in SOXL, TQQQ, LABU to be all in for a bigger run in the S&P. That may not come Tuesday. It might be event driven later in the week, or just a big drop in futures. Like to even see a break in 2700 if possible, but I am in the camp we move higher. How long we hold on to the trades is my only question as I love taking profit. Above 2750 and we should hold on for more.That 2740/2750 area will be the struggle area to take profit.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Bullard speaking just past midnight. Consumer Confidence at 10. Not sure how much data matters right now.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
