ETF Trading Research 6/11/2018

BRZU tried today but gave it back and went lower to touch the lower end of the range. I do think we break up here but was just a little cautious today at the 20 level where I wanted to make a call because of recent weakness and perceived coming weakness in /ES. Hoever, a weaker dollar should push BRZU, RUSL and YINN up.

Was almost tempted in UWT but decided to hold off. However, GUSH did turn green on the weekly and we need to pay attention to that after OPEC tomorrow. Data coming up too. Always volatile but heading to 70+ if it can get its act together.

Woke up to nat gas hitting resistance at 2.95 this morning. Small comeback off the lows. Here is where we stand big picture.

Don’t really care what the Fed does, we are heading higher either before Fed or after Fed. Can get a smack down at first post Fed depending on if they lean hawkish, but any signs of being dovish and gold takes off with miners. By Friday, Wednesday’s move won’t matter. Also, dollar would fall. There are rumors of a .50 hike and while slim, could hurt metals at first, but still irrelevant. I will buy that heck out of NUGT and UGLD or you can add JNUG lower if that or any fall comes. Super bullish into the summer.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.