ETF Trading Research 7/21/2019
When taking time off, I couldn’t really get away from trading in the beginning, and while selling some the following day, held on to two I would normally have sold because of news that affected them. That said, as long as gold goes below $1,400, they can turn out to be great trades still, so don’t really have issues with holding.
Much of why gold and miners went up was because one Fed member said the Fed may lower rates .50 instead of .25 at the next meeting. This has to be one of the dumbest Fed members to make such a comment in spite of better data and a record setting stock market. Overall it’s like the Fed forgot what quantitative easing is needed for and WHEN it is needed. If the Fed did lower rates by .50 now, it would be to me a sign of failure and the beginning of the end of the Fed. That’s how dumb a move it would be. In reality, the Fed should only use QE when in dire need to fend off deflation, their arch enemy to their scheme. Central banks in Europe are doing it because they can’t stimulate the economy. They have gone negative in rates to try and get money flowing, but it is pushing on a string. Money instead is flowing to the U.S. markets as they are moving higher and higher. This of course is pushing the U.S. to extremes there.
Gold moved up $20 and down $20 from Thursday when the Fed made a comment about lowering rates to .50 and then the next day walking that comment back. But miners didn’t fall as much on Friday as they rose on Thursday. Gold has an outside chance of still breaking to one more high to 1384 but I don’t put high odds on it. It hit resistance at 1343 and pulled back and couldn’t break the last high. This is bearish price action and below 1400 watch out bulls. The interest rate decrease is already priced into gold and we should see gold break 1400 and test 1350. The dollar is also due for a continued rise. Also, banks are the smart money and they are 2nd largest short ever. Follow the smart money.
Markets are bearish under 2994 and missed a short there being away, but if we break 2994 on the way up, go long. That’s the call for Monday and we’ll see how we trade then. No new trades till after the market opens. This includes oil and nat gas too. But I will get long when /ES breaks 2994. Could be a good trade if we can break last weeks high in /ES. I won’t hesitate to call markets either side. I will look to the data below for direction and reversals which is the norm these days. It just means quicker profits, but eventually we get a leader we can ride. That leader is higher for the time being, but I am open to trading lower with the .25 pretty much confirmed later this month. Lower in markets and gold may lead. Over 2994 in /ES though, I will change to long.